USIP’s Kamissa Camara and researcher Jerome Tubiana examine Chad—Sudan relations post Idriss Déby’s death and discuss the possibilities that may arise out of the current developments.
In an commentary piece published on the United States Institute of Peace official website, Camara and Tubiana both explained that “Déby’s death has repercussions beyond Chad itself, particularly for its eastern neighbor, Sudan, with which Chad has long had a complicated relationship.”
Déby’s government, as per the report, has played a stabilizing role in Sudan’s western Darfur region, with relations having improved between him and the rebels prior to his death.
With Déby out of the picture however, Sudan’s western region and central government are put in a place of uncertainty.
The repercussions brought forth by Camara and Tubiana seem to hint at the possibility of future uncertainty regarding the slain president’s successor maintaining the same strong relationships with Sudan.
Déby did however establish strong relations with Sudan’s current Vice President of the Sovereignty Council, Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo, known colloquially as “Hemedti”.
The interview states that in 2019, the year Omar Al-Bashir, the former Sudanese president was deposed, the former Chadian president became more closely affiliated with Dagalo
Hemedti’s cousin, Bichara Issa Jadallah, the former Chadian army’s Chief of Staff, is also a member of the new transitional military council.
As a long-time ally to Western counter-terrorism efforts in the region, Déby’s death leaves France and other western countries in an air of uncertainty regarding the implementation of their policies.
The current terms of Chad’s newly formed transitional government have been rejected by Chadian civil society, opposition political parties, trade unions and rebel movements; with the latter now likely to witness growth in popular support.
This growth, as explained, might ensure that “neglecting desires for democratic change in Chad and the continuation of France’s long-standing policy is likely to mean that opinions of France will continue to deteriorate in Chad and ensure some Chadian rebel leaders continue to voice anti-French rhetoric”.